Bissau, Guinea-Bissau: This small, Portuguese-speaking nation on Africa’s western bulge exists in a perpetual state of precariousness. Gripped by months of simmering tensions over the legitimacy of the current president’s mandate, Guinea-Bissau stands as a stark example of a country teetering on the brink, its history a turbulent tapestry woven with coups, crushing poverty, and the insidious tendrils of the global drug trade.
The legacy of an 11-year liberation struggle, spearheaded by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), its long-time ruling force, has been tragically overshadowed by a relentless cycle of instability. Since independence, Guinea-Bissau has endured four successful coups – the most recent in 2012 – alongside a staggering 17 attempted, plotted, or alleged putches. This chronic political earthquake has relentlessly undermined development, leaving the nation vulnerable to the corrosive forces of corruption and the predatory reach of South American drug cartels.
The fragility of the political landscape was laid bare following the November 2019 presidential election. The outcome plunged the nation into a protracted crisis, with two rivals claiming the mantle of head of state. It took the intervention of the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, in April 2020 to finally recognise the victory of Umaro Sissoco Embalo, a reserve brigadier general. Embalo’s predecessor, Jose Mario Vaz, remarkably became the first president since the advent of multiparty elections in 1994 to neither be assassinated nor overthrown – a testament to the deeply ingrained instability. Yet, even under Vaz, the revolving door of prime ministers spun dizzyingly, with seven individuals holding the post during his five-year tenure. The government was forced to deny yet another coup plot as recently as October 2021.
Sandwiched between Senegal and Guinea, this tropical nation, slightly larger than Belgium and encompassing the idyllic Bijagos archipelago, faces a crushing reality of poverty. Home to approximately 2.2 million people in 2023, a diverse mosaic of ethnic groups, languages, and religions, Guinea-Bissau languishes at a dismal 179th out of 193 countries on the UN’s Human Development Index. Shockingly, around a quarter of its citizens struggle to survive on less than $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank’s latest data. The dire state of healthcare services contributes to a grim average life expectancy of just 60 years.
This environment of poverty and chaotic governance has created a fertile breeding ground for Latin American drug lords seeking a transit route for cocaine destined for European markets. The country’s porous borders and weak institutions have proven tragically susceptible to the allure of illicit wealth. Last year brought this reality into sharp focus when Malam Bacai Sanha Jr, the son of a former president, was jailed in the United States for his involvement in a vast heroin trafficking conspiracy. US justice revealed his chilling plan to use the proceeds to finance a coup, ultimately aiming to establish a “drugs regime” with himself at the helm. The scale of the problem was further underscored by the arrest of five Latin Americans in Bissau in September, found in possession of a staggering 2.6 tonnes of cocaine flown in from Venezuela. Adding to the international concern, President Embalo in August 2021 refused to extradite Antonio Indjai, a former head of the army and seasoned coup leader, wanted by the United States for allegedly handling tonnes of cocaine for the Colombian rebel group FARC. Guinea-Bissau’s reputation for corruption is equally damning, ranking a dismal 158th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2024 index.
Amidst this turmoil, agriculture remains the primary engine of the economy, with the nation holding its own as one of the world’s leading cashew nut producers, a vital source of cash for many. Despite the deep-seated challenges, the economy has shown surprising resilience, with a robust growth of 4.3 percent in 2023, according to the African Development Bank, which forecasts an even more promising 5.2 percent expansion this year.
Yet, this economic progress remains fragile, perpetually threatened by the ever-present spectre of political instability and the corrosive influence of the drug trade. For Guinea-Bissau to truly break free from its troubled past and realise its potential, a fundamental shift towards lasting political stability and a decisive clampdown on corruption and the drug cartels that have taken root are not just desirable – they are existential imperatives. The international community watches with bated breath, hoping that this long-suffering nation can finally find a path towards a more secure and prosperous future.
