Senegal is confronting a looming crisis in its agricultural sector, driven by a projected doubling of its population by 2050, widespread youth unemployment, and the escalating threat of climate change. To secure its future, the government is leveraging the AgroEco2050-Senegal initiative to rigorously compare two fundamentally different models for food production: Agro-Industrial and groecological.
The initiative, a participatory foresight exercise co-constructed with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and CIRAD, brought together around 20 experts—including farmers, researchers, and government officials—to quantify and debate the policy implications of each path.
The Intensification Imperative
With food needs set to surge, both scenarios agree on the necessity of intensification. However, their approaches diverge sharply:
- The Agro-Industrial (AI) Model: Focuses on achieving higher yields through the greater use of industrial inputs. While efficient, this model is projected to benefit fewer farmers, as it relies on an increase in land per farmer.
- The Agroecological (AE) Model: Mobilizes a larger workforce and relies on ecological processes to reduce the need for industrial inputs. This scenario also requires more land, particularly through the ambitious restoration of degraded areas.
“The main difference between these scenarios is that the agroecological scenario mobilises a larger workforce, ecological processes that reduce the use of industrial inputs, and more land,” noted Cheickh Sadibou Fall, a researcher at ISRA and co-author of the report.
Quantifying the Future
The study used the AGRIBIOM biophysical and economic model to assess the coherence of each vision across three key interconnected dimensions: employment, land use, and GDP.
A central finding is that both scenarios project an increase in farmer incomes, a critical factor for making agriculture an attractive and viable career path for Senegal’s growing youth population, many of whom are currently unemployed.
According to Anne-Sophie Poisot from the FAO Innovation Office, the findings have immediate policy relevance: “In the short term, these findings will support the development of a new national strategy for agroecology and organic farming in Senegal.”
By quantifying the trade-offs, the AgroEco2050 initiative provides the Government of Senegal with the data needed to shape its National Food Sovereignty Strategy (SNSA), ensuring the country can navigate the complex path toward a just, sustainable, and food-secure future.
